What was the "Y2K"
The "Year 2000" Problem

Part of the Webster dictionary definition:

  'mil-len-ni-um \me-'len-eE-em\ n,  pl -nia \-eE-e\ or -niums
  [NL, fr. L mille thousand + NL -ennium (as in biennium)] (1638)
  2a: a period of 1000 years
  2b: a 1000th anniversary or its celebration

Some folks (numerologists?) say that 1998 was the last year of a millennium. They use "casting out 9s" to determine this. See http://mathforum.org/dr.math/problems/racela9.19.97.html for information on the "casting out 9s" technique. Basically, it goes like this:

1. If there are any "9" digits in the a number (the year--1998 in this case) delete them,
2. Then add all the remaining digits of the number together.
3. If the result is greater than or equal 9, then repeat the previous steps.
4. When you finally have a single digit less than 9, that is "the result".

	1+9+9+8 ==> 1+0+0+8 ==> 18

	1+8 ==> 9

	1+9+9+9 ==> 1+0+0+0 ==> 1

Speaking of numeralogy, Friday, November, 19, 1999, (11/19/1999) was the last day to have all odd digits in its numeric form until 1/1/3111

Calendars

  cal-en-dar \'kal-en-der\ n
  [ME calender, fr. AF or ML; AF calender, fr. ML kalendarium, fr. L,
  moneylender's account book, fr. kalendae calends]
  (13c)
  1: a system for fixing the beginning, length, and divisions of the
  civil year and arranging days and longer divisions of time (as weeks and months)
  in a definite order -- see MONTH table
  2: a tabular register of days according to a system usu. covering
  one year and referring the days of each month to the days of the week

But who cares what day of the month it is, or even what month it is, really? Sure, it's nice to know when Valentine's day is, or Mother's day, but REALLY??

Well, farmers care! You know, the nice folks who grow the food that you and I eat. They need to know about the seasons: when to harvest, and especially, when to plant (when spring starts).

Leap Year

A solar year is not exactly 365 days. It's a little more than 365 days, 365.242190 days. The fractional difference means that after 4 years, you will be behind the real/solar calendar by (about) 4 times .24, or about 1 day. This is what leap year is all about; every 4 years we have an extra day (February 29) to account for the extra .24 day. Leap years have 366 days.

However, .24 day is not exactly .25 (1 quarter) of a day either. So the formula is adding a fraction of a day every leap year (4 times the difference between .25 and .242190). So we adjust by not having a leap year (i.e., no February 29) in years divisible (no remainder) by 100 .

Confused? Well, we're not done yet. By not having leap year in years divisible by 100, we are taking away a little too much. To compensate, we add leap year back into years divisible by 400. This modification was adopted by Pope Gregory XII, in 1582, because after 15 of the special "no leap year in 100 years" the calendar was off by a couple of weeks. This version of the calendar has become known as the Gregorian Calendar.

Check out: http://www.astro.virginia.edu/~eww6n/astro/Calendar.html for an extended discussion.

Summary

• The basic calendar year has 365 days
• Years that are divisible by 4 are leap years and and have an extra day: February 29. Leap years have 366 days.
• However, years that divisible by 100 are not leap years. Years divisible by 100 would also be divisible by 4, so this is an exception to the normal leap year rule.
• Still another exception are years divisible by 400. Normally, (according to the previous rule) these should not be leap years. But years divisible by 400 are leap years.

The February year 2000 calendar looked like:

How Might This Have Affected You? Perhaps via Embedded Systems

In the year 2000, you might have been annoyed that you had to reset the calendar in your watch on both Februrary 29th and March 1st. But there are also clocks and calendars inside many things/objects that you might not think about checking out.

• Your VCR
• Your answering machine
• Your camcorder or camera that records the date on the film.
• And, of course, your computer.

The Y2K "Bug"

Look at the way we often write the date (in the USA): MM/DD/YY, Month/Day/Year; Halloween is 10/31/04, for instance. Both 10/31/04 and, even the school term: Fall 04, have in them the implicition assumption that we were talking about years in the 1900s, 1901-1999. It's a convenient abbreviation, a convention, and well understood by our culture.

Programmers writing computer software programs also used this same abbreviation. They often stored (had the software remember or save) only the last 2 digits of the year. In fact, this is probably a good thing. Not so many years ago, computer memory and disk storage was both very small and very expensive by today's standards. By storing and working with only 2 of the 4 year digits, programmers were able to save significant amounts of storage space, and thus saved millions of dollars over the years.

Whatever their motivation--convenient and standard abbreviation, saving storage and money, or perhaps they were sure the software they wrote would not last until the year 2000--programmers wrote many very important software programs which deal with only 2 digits for the year date. Such programs were written with the implicit assumption that they (the programs) were running in the 20th century (the 1901-1999s).

In the year 2000, these programs would break. This is the Y2K (why-two-kay) problem. Y2K stands for Year 2000; K is computer jargon for Kilo, meaning 1000. The "bug" is storing years as just 2 digits; computations involving years, or sorting by years may not work reliably!

Carnage

• Your age: "current year" minus "date of birth"
  00 - 79 == -79 !!!
• When checking to see if your credit card has expired:
  "expiration date" greater than "current date"
  00 > 98 ???
  This had already occured prior to the year 2000! And hopefully, was (mostly) fixed. It was one of the first "major" failures that started people thinking about the y2k issue, where it might appear.
• Should you be in school? Suppose your age (in 1998) was 104, in 2000 it will be 106.
  06 >= 6 ??? Yes! Why aren't you in kindergarten?
  This happened with computer systems that tried to predict the enrollments in near future.
• Sort computer documents by date:
  00 will come before when it should really come after. (00 is less than 99.)

The Year 0 (zero)

• The year 1970, which computers running the UNIX operating system consider the beginning of time. More on this in a moment.
• The year 1900
• The year 2000 (probably not)
• The year 1980, which most PC computers consider to be "the beginning of time".
• Some other random year as designated by the programmer who wrote a particular piece of software.

• A Saturday (the correct day of the week)
• A Monday, if the software believes that the 00 means 1900
• A Tuesday, if the software has been programmed that 00 means 1980.
• Some other day in the week, if a different year has been picked for year "00".

The Ticking Clock, or the Y2038 Problem

Time zero, when this count was equal zero, started on January 1, 1970. The 1 billionth second after time zero will occur at 1:46:40 AM on Sunday, September 9, in 2001. And on Tuesday, January 19 at 3:14:07 AM in the year 2038, the second counter will become the largest (positive) number that can fit into 32-bits. A second later, at 3:14:08, the 32-bit number will overflow and become a (very large) negative number! (Refer to the workshop on binary to get an understanding of what is happening here.) UNIX systems will become very confused about the time then, as you might imagine.

If you were to use 64 bits to hold the number of seconds instead of 32, you push the overflow problem approximately 292 billion years into the future. Something else is sure to break before that.

The Fix

1. Change all software programs to store and compute dates as 4 digit numbers. (Actually, 5 or 6 digits would be better, otherwise we will be looking at a "year 10,000" problem .)

   This is the database or storage approach. The advantage here is that you don't need to change the logic of the software program, just the size of the data being manipulated (from 2 digits to 4). The disadvantage is that you have to change and enlarge every existing database!

2. Change the software programs to notice if a computation with years involves one year less than (or equal) to 1999 and another that is 2000 or greater. If such is the case, then do a special 4 digit type computation. Otherwise, the computation can proceed normally since things work if both dates are less than 2000, or both are 2000 or greater.

   This is the programmatic approach. The advantage of the programtic approach is that existing databases need not be altered (enlarged). The disadvantage is that programmers must locate every date computation and make the test for years straddling the 2000 boundary.

Some companies and institutions recognized the problem and were starting to attempt to fix or replace their computer software. Others had not even begun.

As the year 2000 approached, many business were replacing their computer systems with newer, y2k complaint ones. This (plus an earthquake in Taiwan) had driven computer prices up. However, not everyone was buying.

THE REAL Y2K PROBLEM: COMPUTER SALES

Many firms continue to be concerned about the effect that Y2K will have on their computer hardware and software. Many large companies, including Huntington Bancshares, Johnson Controls, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, and First Union, have either stopped or plan to stop purchasing new hardware and software for their large mainframes and servers until next year, when information technology managers can assess the damage. The spending freeze is hurting firms such as IBM that sell and service high-end computing systems to older, established companies that perform a lot of data transactions, such as banks and retail companies. Internet-related clients, however, do not appear to be overly concerned, says Sun Microsystems CFO Michael Lehman. "There's a still a little bit of uncertainty, [but] we doubt it's going to be a big deal," said Lehman. (Wall Street Journal 10/22/99)

How Serious a Problem Is It?

Another aspect of the problem was the inter-relationships of business. Your business may have fixed all your y2k problems (say, by upgrading to newer computers and software), but what about your "business partners"? If you can't get the raw materials your business needs because a partner can't deliver due to his y2k failure, you are just as screwed. This is called a domino effect.

Because the problem was so big, an entire industry sprang up to combat the problem. For instance: http://www.year2000.com/. It would cost billions of dollars to correct the y2k problem. Here at UCSD, it was a major concern for the administrative computing department.

What Might Happen?

Dear Valued Employee:

Our records indicate that you have not used any vacation time over the past 100 year(s). As I'm sure you are aware, employees are granted 3 weeks of paid leave per year or pay in lieu of time off. One additional week is granted for every 5 years of service.

Please either take 9,400 days off work or notify our office and your next pay check will reflect payment of $8,277,432.22 which will include all pay and interest for the past 1,200 months.

Sincerely, Automated Payroll Processing

Some Real Stories

EARLY SIGNS OF Y2K BUG (PART I: PAYROLL COMPUTATION)

Several recent mishaps have sent the message: "Take the Y2K problem seriously." Using outdated software, the West Virginia company Lynn Electric couldn't close its 1998 payroll because all documents converted to 1944, which is the date arbitrarily chosen by a number of PC programmers to use as state date for operating system clocks. (AP 31 Dec 98)

EARLY SIGNS OF Y2K BUG (PART II: MEDICAL DEVICES)

And the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has reported that two medical devices -- an external defibrillator and a multiparameter patient monitor -- will fail to display, print or store the correct time of the products' operation (thereby creating incorrect records but not endangering patient health). An FDA administrator says, "It is a harbinger of things to come. We already have received inquiries from a number of sources about rumors on the Web that this product or that is going to fail in a certain way." When there are issues related to health outcomes, we try to track them down." Joel Ackerman of the Rx2000 Solutions Institute in Minneapolis notes that "health care as an industry is late in dealing with the year 2000. We are expecting there will be patient injuries, but we don't know how many or how severe." (Washington Post 31 Dec 98)

SATELLITE SYSTEM MUST RESET OR FACE TROUBLE

[Note, while not strictly a y2k problem, it is similar.] The calendar for the global positioning system (GPS), which counts time in weeks and seconds, is expected to run into problems on Saturday when it rolls over to zero instead of moving to 1024. The system keeps track of dates by counting weeks, which makes it efficient but also limits it to 1,024 weeks. Saturday, August 21, 1999, will be the beginning of the 1,024th week since the system began operating on Jan. 6, 1980, and experts are not sure what the older individual systems will do when they have to roll over their calendars. Receivers could be affected by becoming non-operational, generating bad data, displaying 1980 dates, or spending hours attempting to lock on to the signals. Experts say that more than 90 percent of the estimated eight million military and commercial GPS receivers will experience no difficulties. The number of GPS receivers affected by the rollover will be limited primarily because most of the industry's growth has occurred in the past five years, after the problem had been identified and equipment was made to address the issue. (New York Times 08/16/99)

EXPERT QUESTIONS Y2K READINESS AT NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

At a Washington symposium on Year 2000 computer problems, nuclear power expert Paul Gunter expressed concern over the reliability of backup generators if there should be Y2K-induced power shortages: "It is imperative that this issue is addressed at this very critical timeframe. They have to draw a line of nuclear safety and shut down any plant that crosses the line." (Reuters/San Jose Mercury News 8 Mar 99)

Y2K FEARS TO SURFACE AS DEADLINE APPROACHES

U.S. businesses are now expressing several Y2K-related concerns, despite having issued mainly optimistic reports about the glitch for the past two years, according to quarterly Y2K status reports filed with the SEC. Companies seem to agree that no one can predict all the potential risks involved with Y2K, both to computer systems and to businesses. The largest Y2K fear is that a domino effect will occur in which a small failure will diffuse into other, larger systems, causing them to fail as well. Another concern is that embedded chips, which are contained in possibly billions of products, will either cease to function or will generate faulty results. In addition, Y2K problems at smaller companies might result in supply-chain collapses that will damage larger, better-prepared firms. Finally, the replacement of old systems poses a threat, because companies might not complete implementations in time for the date change. About 25 percent of companies are installing new systems instead of upgrading old systems. (USA Today 10/11/99)

But There Was Good News Too

BUT PUBLIC SAYS: "Y WORRY?"

Despite early warning signs such as described in the two previous items, the public seems to be shrugging off the Y2K problem. A USA Today/National Science Foundation poll indicates that the number of people who expect "major problems" in 2000 because of the millennium bug is down from 48% in June to only 34% now. And 30% express confidence there will be "no problems at all" that will affect them personally. (USA Today 31 Dec 98)

NO PROBLEM SO FAR FOR AIRLINES BOOKING Y2K TRAVEL

Many airlines, car rental agencies, and other travel businesses have started taking computerized reservations for travel on the first day of the year 2000, and so far there are no signs of the Y2K bug. Good news has been reported by Delta, United, and other airlines. (AP/Atlanta Journal-Constitution 5 Feb 99)

WALL STREET Y2K TEST GOES OFF WITHOUT A GLITCH

Four hundred securities firms participated Saturday in a nationwide test to ensure that securities trading systems would be able to function next year without encountering problems engendered by the Y2K problem. Officials from the Securities Industry Association said all the participants were able to execute trades, but the full round of testing won't be finished until later this month or next. At that time, the association will be able fully to assess how many Y2K bugs were detected. Although other countries are conducting point-to-point tests, to ensure that one firm can interact with another, the U.S. is the only nation involved in testing its entire system, with broker-dealers, exchanges and clearing agencies interacting all at once. (Wall Street Journal 8 Mar 99)

NORTH AMERICA'S ELECTRIC SYSTEM PASSES Y2K TEST

The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) performed year 2000 (Y2K) computer bug drills between Wednesday and early Thursday morning, with much success. Over 500 utilities, electric cooperatives, power pools, and power plants across the continent participated in the simulation. Most of the tests were for backup communications systems and to assess contingency strategies. Only a few minor problems were reported; in fact, the biggest problem was caused by a computer hacker who tried to penetrate the communications system at the Bonneville Power Administration, where DOE Secretary Bill Richardson was stationed to observe the Y2K tests. The hacker's presence was detected before problems were caused, but the hacker is still on the loose and being sought by the FBI. Other minor setbacks included storms that caused some power losses to a substation in San Francisco and the New York Power Pool. However, Richardson cautioned the utility industry from being overly confident after the drill, pointing out that there is still a small percentage of power companies that are not compliant. (Wall Street Journal 09/10/99)

Y2K POLL: CONCERN DROPS, BUT NOT PRECAUTIONS

Although more Americans now plan to follow precautionary measures for Y2K than a few months ago, fewer Americans now express concern of major failures, according to a recent USA Today/ National Science Foundation poll. Currently, 55 percent of respondents plan to avoid air travel, 58 percent will document financial holdings, and 40 percent will store extra food and water. Although these numbers mark increases over previous polls, the number of people anticipating failures of key systems is now the lowest it has been in a year. Only 38 percent expect disruptions in financial services, 34 percent expect air traffic control problems, and 32 percent predict food shortages. The current public reaction "indicates how well people are understanding our message, that people need to take appropriate steps but not extraordinary ones," says White House Y2K czar John Koskinen. The polls also found that fewer people plan to withdraw large sums from the bank or purchase a generator or wood stove. (USA Today 11/24/99)

A CONFIDENT EUROPE IN COUNTDOWN TO Y2K

Europe expects Y2K to have little impact on its critical infrastructure, including the power grid, air traffic control systems, telecommunications, and banking. Although a few problems are likely to affect small and midsize businesses, most of these issues will be delays or errors rather than total failures, the Gartner Group says. "We expect there to be a marginal increase in the hassle factor for computer systems in the next few weeks," says Gartner Group research director Andy Kyte. Action 2000, the British government's computer bug agency, expects glitches in about 5 percent of data functions, which is similar to the level of problems large companies have when they deploy new software systems. Britain was among the earliest nations to rank Y2K as a top priority, and British businesses and government agencies have spent about $32.4 billion on remediation, according to Action 2000. Many experts say Italy is the least Y2K-ready of all the major European nations. (International Herald Tribune 12/15/99)

Contingency Plans

D.C. PLANS TO MOBILIZE WORKERS FOR Y2K BACKUP

The government of Washington, D.C., has acknowledged that it may not complete its Y2K fixes in time and is planning a massive mobilization of emergency personnel and other staff on New Year's Eve to ensure there are no interruptions in critical city services due to the Y2K bug. The city is stationing police at 120 locations across the city to take walk-in requests for emergency services, and is establishing 21 "warming centers" supplied with food, water, and cots. School crossing guards will be on call to replace traffic lights at major intersections, while the hospital will have as many as 175 extra staff members on site. Many more contingencies are planned for New Year's as the government admits that it is so far behind on its Y2K fixes that it may have to rely on "turn-around" techniques. D.C. Chief Technology Officer Suzanne J. Peck said that "a handful" of city systems "may fail temporarily." D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams added that the intent is not to alarm people, but to assure them that the city will have things under control. (Washington Post 06/28/99)

OPM TO SUSPEND WEB SERVICES

The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) yesterday announced plans to disconnect its Internet services over New Year's weekend to protect its systems from threats posed by hackers and power failures. Instead of being directed to OPM's home page, users trying to visit the site will see a message from the agency's director explaining why the site has been temporarily removed. Several other federal agencies are likely to also shut down their sites. Agriculture Department Chief Technology Officer Anne Thomson says a number of USDA Web sites will be disconnected over the holidays, and the Social Security Administration says it is considering whether to shut down its site. Some experts believe removing a site will entice hackers to try breaking into a site before or after it shuts down. Others feel that agencies need to announce the removal of a site well in advance so users will not mistake the site's absence for a Y2K incident. Princeton University yesterday announced that it will remove its systems from the Internet for seven hours on New Year's, according to the Associated Press. (Washington Post 12/09/99)

U.S. PLANS Y2K CENTER, CLINTON AIDE TELLS SENATE

The U.S. government is developing a command center to manage Y2K-related emergencies. The new Y2K management strategy centers around the Y2K Information Coordination Center (ICC), a Washington-based center to monitor critical private-sector activities, local, state, and federal computer systems, overseas actions, and cyber incidents, including electronic attacks. Federal authorities are asking critical U.S. industries to participate by providing updates on their systems to the government. The entire crisis management network will be launched by Oct. 31, and will end Y2K operations by June 2000. The Y2K Center may also help the government to prepare for its efforts to protect the nation's information infrastructure from disabling cyber attacks. The center will coordinate U.S. agency assessments of Y2K-related emergencies that could harm U.S. domestic and international interests. In the future, it could be used as a framework for future collaboration between major infrastructure industries and the federal government to protect communication networks. (Reuters 07/30/99)

Y2K GLOBAL PICTURE TO UNFOLD ON INTERNET

The International Y2K Cooperation Centre, supported by the United Nations, will monitor the effects of Y2K in New Zealand at midnight on New Year's Eve, keeping other time zones that have not yet made the date change informed of the impact. New Zealand will be the first industrialized nation to change over to 2000, with Greenwich Mean Time 13 hours behind, and the U.S. East Coast 17 hours behind. The group will gather data from 170 or more national Y2K coordinators, and will use its Web site to report on the status of energy, communications, financial services, government services, and transportation. The group's site will allow Net users to follow the effects of Y2K region by region. In the event of Y2K-related problems, one possibility is that the group will establish regional help desks using experts who will be able to talk others through necessary repairs. (Reuters 09/08/99)

TEAM OF STATE SENTRIES WILL FOLLOW THE SUN TO MONITOR Y2K BLIPS

The state of California will dispatch 20 people on New Year's Eve to monitor Y2K-related issues all over the world and report back to California, which will be one of last places on earth to make the change to the new century. Auckland, New Zealand, for example, will reach the 21st century 21 hours before California. The spotter in Auckland will report what he or she observes, good and bad, back to California as Aucklanders move into the New Year. If Auckland has a problem with its traffic lights, for example, California officials will have 21 hours to make sure the Golden State's lights work. The 20 sentries will monitor things such as power grids, truck and rail deliveries, 911 systems, airport traffic and baggage systems, civil disturbances, hospitals, etc. (Los Angeles Times 11/07/99

Y2K AND VIRUSES COULD BE AN EXPLOSIVE MIX

More than two dozen viruses have already been discovered that are designed to take effect as 1999 gives way to 2000, and more, possibly many more, are expected. The Anti-Virus Emergency Response Team (Avert), part of Network Associates, and others are preparing for this viral onslaught in an effort to track and fix problems as quickly as possible. Experts say viruses could be disguised as Y2K fixes or even as manifestations of the Y2K problem itself, or they could be designed to attack systems that are not Y2K compliant. E-mail is the main avenue for a virus to spread and many large companies are planning to shut down their e-mail systems during the date changeover. Avert director Vincent Gulloto says, "A lot of companies I've spoken to are going into lockdown." The major virus fighting companies, including Network Associates, Symantec, and Trend Micro, are planning to be fully staffed during the date changeover to handle the expected large volume of calls and to deal with any emergencies. (Wall Street Journal 12/16/99)

ASIA'S READINESS FOR YEAR 2000 IS A GLOBAL ISSUE

The impact of possible Y2K complications in Asia on the global supply chain is now a concern, following this week's earthquake in Taiwan and consequent worldwide supply chain problems in the semiconductor industry. Asia, a major high-tech supplier to international companies, is one of the least prepared regions for the date change, according to recent reports. Analysts say some parts of Asia, specifically China, have released very little information about Y2K preparations. International companies such as Dell Computer have been working to ensure that Asian suppliers are ready for Y2K. Dell has factories in China and Penang, Malaysia, and has established numerous contingency plans, according to Dell Y2K point man Dave Cunningham. Although some areas, including Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, are considered prepared for Y2K, even these regions could be affected by the less-prepared areas. (Wall Street Journal 09/24/99)

LAST Y2K HURDLE: COMMUNICATIONS

IT executives are working around the clock to make sure that when the new year is here, they will be able to communicate with the business partners that they depend on. With customers and suppliers swamping phone systems for status information on Y2K, there are likely to be delays, or even network overloads, which could be misinterpreted as a computer glitch-related catastrophe. Interestingly enough, more IT and e-commerce executives are more concerned with increased traffic on phone systems than they are with a system shutdown. Most companies have taken care of potential problems that could occur within their internal communications. And many large companies have turned their attention to helping their suppliers and e-commerce partners get ready. IT managers also understand that Y2K problems are not limited to the New Year rollover. In fact, problems could occur sporadically throughout the first quarter of the year. Not taking any chances, the city of Orlando will make use of cellular phones, 800 MHz equipment, and ham radio options. (InternetWeek 12/13/99)

The Lawyers Have a Field Day

But lawyers would be having a field day.

And from Edupage:

THE Y2K BUG GOES TO COURT

At least 78 Y2K lawsuits have already been filed, and Lloyds of London predicts claims could surpass $1 trillion worldwide. In what may have been the first Y2K lawsuit, the owners of the Produce Palace sued the makers of their computer system, which crashed in 1995 when customers used credit cards with expiration dates ending in "00." The firm that made the system did not want to replace the computer even after the Produce Palace placed over 200 service calls. The Warren, Mich.-based gourmet grocery store won a settlement of $260,000. Some lawmakers and industry lobbyists have been urging legislation that would limit Y2K litigation. However, trial lawyers, consumer groups, and the U.S. Justice Department feel that the proposed restrictions would be unfair to people with legitimate Y2K claims. (Time 04/19/99)

ITALY FINDS US COMPANY LIABLE FOR COMPUTER BUG

In a case that may set a precedent for Y2K rulings, Italian clothes manufacturer Industrie Zignago S Margherita has won its case against U.S. computer supplier Unisys for refusing to pay for an upgrade to fix a date-related computer bug. As doubt lingers over the issue of who is responsible for paying for Y2K repairs, the Italian case addresses many points likely to arise in Y2K litigation. The ruling is one of the first to hold a supplier liable for glitches related to the age of equipment. Unisys in 1994 had warned that its aging System 1100 might crash on Jan. 1, 1996, and refused to offer a free upgrade, although an upgrade was provided at a charge. Zignago declined the upgrade, switched suppliers, and took Unisys to court. The Italian court found Unisys in violation of its contract to provide Zignago with software and hardware until 1997. (Financial Times 10/06/99)

SENATE OKS BILL LIMITING Y2K'S LEGAL BACKLASH

The Senate passed a measure Tuesday to limit lawsuits arising from Y2K-related problems. The bill, similar to one recently passed in the House, restricts class-action lawsuits and limits punitive damages in these cases. The legislation also requires would-be plaintiffs to give 30 days' notice before filing suit and grants defendants 60 days to fix the problem. President Clinton has threatened to veto the bill, sparking much debate as to the outcome of Y2K as well as the political motives of both sides. Although the administration would like to reach a compromise with Congress on Y2K legislation, it argues that the present bill excessively limits lawsuits, potentially blocking legitimate consumer claims. Bill sponsor Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) counters that without this legislation, courthouses may be consumed by frivolous litigation potentially totaling $1 trillion. (Los Angeles Times 06/16/99)

CLINTON SIGNS Y2K LAW PROTECTING COMPANIES

President Clinton on Tuesday approved a law to protect companies from Y2K-related lawsuits. The bill will delay lawsuits concerning Y2K-related problems for up to 90 days, allowing companies time to fix any problems, and also places limits on punitive damages. Supporters of the measure believe that it will prevent litigation from potentially bankrupting technology companies necessary to the growth of the U.S. economy. Yet opponents argue that the bill limits the rights of consumers by preventing them from seeking compensation when they are wronged. Clinton maintains that he approved the bill because he is convinced that companies are serious in their efforts to achieve Y2K compliance. (Reuters 07/21/99)

MICROSOFT'S MASSIVE Y2K CAMPAIGN

Microsoft on Tuesday announced that it is contacting 80 million customers through e-mail and postal mail to encourage them to prepare their PCs for the year 2000. The company launched a campaign to e-mail 20 million customers on July 21, and will continue throughout August, Microsoft director of Y2K readiness Don Jones told a House panel in Seattle. In addition, 60 million customers will be contacted through direct mail. "This could be the largest mass mailing outside of tax forms," Jones said. The message informs customers that some Microsoft products may require Y2K software updates, and guides users to Microsoft's Y2K Web site. Jones told the committee that PC users should be able to install Y2K software in about an hour. Among the products that will need software updates are the original English-language Windows 98 and some copies of Windows 95 and Site Server. (Wired News 08/19/99)

Y2K LEGAL WRANGLING ESCALATES

Y2K litigation is picking up as the end of the year approaches, with large companies suing insurance firms that refuse to pay out on claims for Y2K-related expenses. Xerox, GTE, and Unisys have all sued their insurers, and experts say Y2K could result in over $35 billion in potential claims. Companies are seeking compensation from insurers under policy provisions covering costs for equipment repairs that could minimize business losses. In response, insurance companies say Y2K repairs are not covered by standard property and casualty coverage because the public was widely aware of Y2K. Insurers have become a common target for companies seeking compensation, since recent Y2K legislation shields equipment and software makers from lawsuits to some extent. The rulings in these early cases will largely determine the extent of Y2K litigation, experts say. (InfoWorld 11/29/99)

Time Was Running Out!

ALL OKAY ON Y2K? NOT YET

The White House on Wednesday warned small businesses that have not yet addressed Y2K issues to do so now. The government is concerned that as many as 800,000 small U.S. businesses have no plans to check for Y2K glitches in their systems. Only 81 firms have applied for special loans approved by Congress in April to help small companies fix and upgrade systems for Y2K. "It's not too late to start to get Y2K-ready," said John Koskinen, chairman of the President's Y2K Council. "There is great risk in waiting." The expense of fixing systems now is minimal compared with the cost of waiting until after the date change, Koskinen said. Companies that wait to see which systems fail in 2000 might have to wait weeks for fixes to be made, during which time they could be forced out of business for financial reasons, Koskinen said. (Washington Post 09/27/99)

The Cost?

Y2K REPAIR BILL: $100 BILLION The Commerce Department yesterday estimated the cost of Y2K repairs to U.S. businesses and government agencies at $100 billion, significantly lower than previous estimates. However, the glitch is still the most expensive peace-time disaster in recent times, and has required unmatched resources over the past two years. The $100 billion expense, which equates to $365 for each U.S. citizen, includes testing and repair efforts from 1995 to 2001. The figure does not include the cost of buying new systems to replace older ones, Y2K publicity campaigns, or potential litigation. Therefore, some experts estimate that the actual Y2K spending will be closer to $150 billion. Two years ago, Gartner Group predicted that Y2K would cost the U.S. up to $300 billion. The largest impact on the U.S. economy will be from increased inventories in preparation for Y2K, the Commerce Department says. (Washington Post 11/18/99)

The D10K Problem?

From the 26 March 1998, Edupage:

DOW 10K PROBLEM LOOMS LARGE

While companies are spending millions to solve their Y2K problems, another potential computer glitch is creeping ever closer -- the Dow 10,000 problem. As the Dow Jones industrial average nears 10,000 (it closed recently at 9700+), some analysts are predicting waves of computer-directed "stop-loss" selling as some older financial software is tricked into thinking the Dow has crashed to 1000. Most of the larger financial firms have fixed their software, but some smaller firms and brokerages probably haven't made all the necessary adjustments, says a Gartner Group analyst, who says the worst-case scenario would be a mistake in the index cascading through an Internet-based or automatic trading system, thus interfering with things like stock index futures. (Investor's Business Daily 4 Feb 99)

But, as you may be aware, the Dow had already passed the the 10,000 mark, and Wall Street was still humming away. This gave us hope for the Y2K problem!

The "9999" Bug?

WILL 9-9-99 DEEP-SIX COMPUTERDOM NEXT THURSDAY?

Y2K planners from several industries will be testing backup systems on Sept. 9, 1999, a date that may cause computer glitches similar to those associated with Y2K. The date 9-9-99 could result in problems if computers interpret it as the "9999" command to stop programs. Although most experts believe no severe problems will arise next week, many plan to use the opportunity as a dry run for Y2K. The electric industry on Wednesday will begin a drill of procedures for Dec. 31, while several banks on Thursday will practice ways of finding and reporting Y2K problems. President Clinton's Y2K advisory council will gather status reports, and a global Y2K group will observe the date's effect on other countries. Meanwhile, the Coast Guard and the U.S. Transportation Department are deploying special teams to attend to problems should they occur. (Philadelphia Inquirer 09/02/99)

Was it just Hype?

JOURNALISTS TOLD NOT TO SPREAD Y2K FEARS

Federal Reserve Board member Edward W. Kelley Jr. is cautioning journalists to avoid undermining Americans' confidence in the banking system with overblown and unwarranted reports about the Y2K problem. He said, "If glitches occur or problems loom, report fully on them of course, but make sure to place the problem in an appropriate context." There needs to be concern about "the possibility of our citizenry becoming so overly worried about what might happen that there could be the very type of problem we are working so hard to prevent." But Kelley should be somewhat reassured by a new USA Today/Gallup Poll for the National Science Foundation indicating that only 21% of Americans now expect major problems in 2000 -- a percentage down from 34% just three months ago. (USA Today 10 Mar 99)

GREENSPAN, OTHERS WARN OF Y2K PANIC

Fear of Y2K could be more damaging than the bug itself, said top U.S. financial leaders who met for a conference in Washington on Friday. If companies stockpile and retain inventory, "bottlenecks could develop, and market pressure could ensue," said Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Although Greenspan said the possibility of cascading failures in major computer networks now seems unlikely, he noted that "The response of businesses and households to unwarranted fears of serious disruptions does give me pause." Greenspan advises consumers to prepare for the date change as they would for any other long weekend. By withdrawing large amounts of money from the bank, consumers would only increase their risk of becoming crime or fraud victims, Greenspan said. To discourage stockpiling, Greenspan says financial regulators should release facts to counter unfounded Y2K rumors. Meanwhile, SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt says the financial industry is very prepared for Y2K, and that investors should not change their trading or investing habits. (Investor's Business Daily 09/20/99)

NOTHING TO FEAR BUT FEAR ITSELF

Many analysts believe that although the approach of the year 2000 will not bring chaos in terms of computer failures and malfunctions as originally expected, stockpiling stemming from Y2K could severely affect the world's stock markets and economies. America's 15 biggest banks expect to spend over $3.5 billion preparing for Y2K, much of which will be spent reassuring customers rather than on fixing computer equipment as originally planned. Companies that rely on imports from countries where Y2K readiness is uncertain are stockpiling and ordering needed supplies in advance. Airline passengers are expected to book flights before the end of the year, and businesses are expected to spend more right before Christmas to prepare. Fears about not having access to money will cause businesses and customers to demand money from banks, which could lead to the banks not having enough liquid assets. An extra $70 billion will be released by the Federal Reserve to relieve this situation. (Economist 09/25/99)

JAPAN ADVISES PUBLIC TO BUY Y2K SUPPLIES

The Japanese government is now encouraging its citizens to buy two- to three-day supplies of water, food, gasoline, and other goods to prepare for Y2K. The Web site for the Prime Minister's Office has a page suggesting that the public stockpile certain items, although the site also says authorities expect no major disruptions to everyday life. In addition, the government ran ads on Saturday in 75 newspapers with the same suggestions. Only a few days before the warnings, the government announced that over 90 percent of companies in the finance, power utilities, telecommunications, and airline industries were ready for Y2K. However, the recent advisories suggest concern over how prepared Japan is for the date change. (Wall Street Journal 11/01/99)

IOWA COLLEGES SET TO SHELTER PEOPLE DISPLACED BY Y2K

Iowa State University, the University of Iowa, and the University of Northern Iowa are preparing to offer refuge to thousands of people if Y2K-related utility failures occur on Jan. 1 leaving homes without heat. The three universities have their own power and water supplies, and residence halls will be mostly empty with students away for winter break. The University of Iowa is preparing its largest residence hall, a recreation center, and student union to shelter thousands in the event of power failures. The university has its own hospital, and therefore is equipped with backup power supplies and generators. Meanwhile, the University of Northern Iowa is preparing its residence halls, gymnasium, and football dome. In preparing for Y2K, universities in the Midwest have the benefit of an extra hour over schools on the East Coast because of the time difference, and will be watching to get an idea of what to expect. Northern Iowa Y2K coordinator and associate vice president for information technology Gary Bozylinsky says, "We work closely with the Red Cross...all we have to provide is space." (Chronicle of Higher Education 11/05/99)

GOVERNMENT WARNING ABOUT Y2K HACKERS

Government Y2K experts plan to monitor computer systems closely on Jan. 1 for hacker attacks disguised as Y2K problems. Some of these attacks might come from hackers trying to break into networks as the date change occurs, but problems are more likely to stem from malicious programs such as viruses and worms that have already infected the Internet and corporate networks. The FBI today will hold a briefing to address the potential threat of Y2K hackers. President Clinton's top Y2K adviser John Koskinen recently issued a request to hackers to not make problems during the date change. Although some hackers believe they serve a useful function in highlighting security flaws, Koskinen says New Year's "will not be a particularly good weekend to try to demonstrate the need for more information security." Several worms and viruses that are scheduled to deliver their payload on Jan. 1 have already been discovered, and many of these programs target Microsoft's Windows. A large number of Y2K attacks will hit on the first work days after New Year's. (Washington Post 12/21/99)

Some of the Many Y2k Web Sites

• The U.S. Senate report -- http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/
• http://y2k.ucsd.edu. -- no longer active.
• http://www.vendor2000.com -- no longer active.
• A novel solution involving sock monkeys

January 1, 2000
The Aftermath

Well, we weren't out of the woods yet.

• New Year's day was a Saturday in 2000. The first test would be when businesses open their doors on Monday, January 3rd.
• The second hurdle would be February 29; remember that 2000 is an unusual leap year case.
• March and April when businesses compile their first quarter business statements of the year.
• And, indeed, probably any time an old existing system runs for the first time during the year.

ON COLLEGE CAMPUSES AS ELSEWHERE, Y2K BUG IS A NEW YEAR'S NO-SHOW

Fears of Y2K-related problems at colleges and universities proved unfounded, as even minor problems were hard to find, although officials say that problems could still arise as the new semester gets underway at most schools this week and throughout the month. Many institutions had assembled Y2K "response teams" to ensure that the date changeover went smoothly, and contingency plans were ready at many schools in the event that power was lost or other systems malfunctioned due to unexpected Y2K issues. Many universities also created Web sites to keep students and employees informed of their Y2K status. Colleges and universities had been singled out by the Education Department as some of the least-prepared organizations for Y2K, but few problems arose as schools such as Arizona State University and Princeton spent $4 million preparing for the transition. Although some Y2K fears were less problematic than expected, such as problems with embedded processors, most experts say that the money and energy spent on Y2K readiness paid off in a smooth transition. (Chronicle of Higher Education Online 01/03/00)

WHITE HOUSE CITES SOME 'MINOR GLITCHES' IN Y2K CONVERSION

The White House Y2K Council recently announced that the country passed through the New Year with no major crises, although there have been a few minor problems reported. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago experienced some glitches in transferring certain funds on Jan. 3, but the problem has been rectified, according to the bank. The Federal Housing Administration reported that three of its computer systems experienced some problems on Jan. 3, but that they have been cleared up. The council also said that certain bank credit-card companies have been experiencing some Y2K problems involving the duplicate postings of certain credit-card charges, a problem that mostly causes headaches for small businesses. Finally, the council announced that a Chicago bank had to temporarily halt electronic Medicare payments to certain hospitals and health-care providers on Jan. 3, but that the bank has since resumed payments. (Wall Street Journal, 10 Jan 2000)

VIRUS WRITERS, COMPUTER HACKERS FAIL TO CREATE MUCH-FEARED HAVOC

Although many computer security experts feared that hackers and virus spreaders would attack computers over the New Year's weekend, such worries have so far remained unfounded. The conventional wisdom was that hackers would take advantage of the date change to 2000 to deface Web sites and spread viruses in the hopes of confusing computer users into thinking that the damage was actually caused by Y2K problems. Although there have been no reports of any hacker activity beyond what would occur on a normal day, security experts are still in a state of red alert, as the new work week could bring a host of problems as employees, particularly those working for small companies, log on to their computer systems for the first time after the change to 2000. (Wall Street Journal 01/03/00)

Y2K INDUSTRY CLOSING SHOP AFTER QUIET PASSAGE TO 2000

Computer programmers, analysts, and others who devoted time and efforts to Y2K are moving on to new projects now that the date change has passed largely without incident. Last year hundreds of thousands of programmers worked to fix glitches while analysts made alarming Y2K predictions. Now analysts are abandoning the topic of Y2K, and programmers are accepting large pay cuts. Some programmers say Y2K work is not especially attractive on a resume, because the work is considered time-consuming, but not highly skilled. Demand for Y2K programmers began to dwindle last summer, says Jim Kalember of recruiting firm Professional Access. Last year Professional Access charged $120 an hour for contracted programmers, and now the company only charges about $70 an hour. However, companies are launching new projects, especially in the area of e-commerce, that offer opportunities for Y2K programmers who are looking for work. (Los Angeles Times 5 Jan 2000)

Y2K meets September 11

The terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City and on the Pentagon (and failed attack on the White House) on September 11, 2001 showed us just how vulnerable our physical security and infrastructure really was.

How secure is our "cyber-structure"? It will undoubtedly be tested in the months to come. But certainly we were better off on 9/11 than we might have been had it not been for the y2k problem.

Study Questions

1. What is the purpose of leap year?
2. Is the year 2000 a leap year?
3. What is the difference between the Julian and Gregorian calendars?
4. What does "Y2K" mean/stand for?
5. What does the "K" in "Y2K" stand for?
6. Describe the "Y2K" problem?
   1. Is the problem due to the unusual Leap Year situation in 2000?
   2. Is the problem that the year 2000 is a multiple of 2000?
   3. Is the problem due to software programs store dates as 2 digits, and do calculations with only 2 digits?
   4. Is the problem that some computers will think 2000 is the year 0 and not turn on?
   5. What is one chief concern regarding the y2k problem?
7. How can one fix a program with the Y2K "bug"?
8. What was the Dow 10K problem?

Terms to Know

©opyright 1997-2004 Mark R. Wallen Last updated: Sun Sep 19 12:20:25 2004